木材与中国历史文明相伴相生，是不可回避的中国文化符号，也是全球共识的环境与气候战略解决方案，但木材工业正在从A股市场黯然消失。然而，美国木塑龙头Trex市值高达700亿元，超过全球木材工业巨头。中国诸多从材料科技行业跨界走来的木塑企业，能否推进中国木业工业的变革。大洋数科认为，中国需要一个与自身市场地位相匹配的、强大的木材工业战略。
[{"attributes":{"bold":true},"insert":"Trex市值700亿木塑超越木材工业意味着什么？"},{"attributes":{"header":2},"insert":"\n"},{"insert":"\t"},{"attributes":{"lineHeight":"150%"},"insert":"林千闰 2021年04月08日"},{"insert":"\n\t"},{"attributes":{"lineHeight":"150%"},"insert":"（木塑：典型散小乱弱产业走向何方）"},{"insert":"\n\t\n\t"},{"attributes":{"lineHeight":"150%"},"insert":"摘要：木材与中国历史文明相伴相生，是不可回避的中国文化符号，也是全球共识的环境与气候战略解决方案，但木材工业正在从A股市场黯然消失。然而，美国木塑龙头Trex市值高达700亿元，超过全球木材工业巨头。中国诸多从材料科技行业跨界走来的木塑企业，能否推进中国木业工业的变革。大洋产服认为，中国需要一个与自身市场地位相匹配的、强大的木材工业战略。"},{"insert":"\n\t\n木材工业正从A股消失"},{"attributes":{"header":3},"insert":"\n"},{"insert":"\t\n\t"},{"attributes":{"lineHeight":"150%"},"insert":"森林占地球陆地面积的30%，每年吸收大约20亿吨二氧化碳，可持续林业成为全球环境和气候的解决方案。全球每年从森林开采超过30亿立方米的木材，中国、美国、加拿大、欧洲共消费了75%。"},{"insert":"\n\t"},{"attributes":{"lineHeight":"150%"},"insert":"中国是世界上最大的木材进口国、消费国、木制品生产基地和最主要的木制品加工出口国。2019年,中国木材消费6亿立方米，木业加工产值超过2.2万亿元，出口家具3730亿元。"},{"insert":"\n\t"},{"attributes":{"lineHeight":"150%"},"insert":"木材与中国历史文明相伴相生，皇家园林、中式建筑、中式家具中的木材元素，在叙述着这个悠久的文明。中国的文化复兴，尤其乡村振兴，木材应用成为一个不可回避和不可缺席的文化符号。"},{"insert":"\n\t"},{"attributes":{"lineHeight":"150%"},"insert":"然而，当下中国虽是世界最大的木材进口国、消费国、木制品生产基地和家具出口国，但上游的木材工业产业地位和产业链生态，与消费规模和文化底蕴完全背离。"},{"insert":"\n\t"},{"attributes":{"lineHeight":"150%"},"insert":"木材工业在当下中国是一个典型的散小乱弱的产业。营收方面，中林集团1600亿全球第一，没有木业工业营收十亿元以上的企业。A股市场，宜华生活2019原木营收7.5亿已退市，兔宝宝2019科技木营收1.78亿，仅剩平潭发展（000592）2019年6.84亿纤维板和5195万林业保留主业属性。"},{"insert":"\n\t"},{"attributes":{"lineHeight":"150%"},"insert":"传统木业工业正在从A股市场消失，疾风骤雨的A股资本市场，还来不及为这些传统产业升级提供对话框架。与此态势形成反差，“源于木、优于木、生命之木”，以木王工业股份为代表，森泰股份、中铁装配（300374）、国风塑业（000859）、南京聚隆（300644）等从材料科技行业跨界走来的木塑企业，正在积极推进中国木业工业的变革，扛起重塑“木业工业”的大旗。"},{"insert":"\n\t"},{"attributes":{"lineHeight":"150%"},"insert":"（表）全球木材龙头和木质材料样本数据"},{"insert":"\n"},{"insert":{"image":"P11094959-afa7d85e9a3171f5a872b1dcaa9eb741_290514_2372_1321.png"}},{"insert":"\n\t\n"},{"attributes":{"lineHeight":"150%"},"insert":"（图）全球木材龙头和木质材料样本营收"},{"insert":"\n"},{"insert":{"image":"P11094959-12cc49abf3fe3322c86d8ee06cb80afc_110483_1531_847.png"}},{"insert":"\n\n\t"},{"attributes":{"lineHeight":"150%"},"insert":"图表显示：全球木材龙头营收十倍于木塑龙头；Trex市值排全球木材和木塑上市公司第2，利润率和增速远高于传统木材龙头；全球木塑龙头营收十倍于中国木塑龙头； 中国木塑15强总营收与全球木塑龙头持平。"},{"insert":"\n芬林：下一个千年诺基亚"},{"attributes":{"header":3},"insert":"\n"},{"insert":"\t"},{"attributes":{"lineHeight":"150%"},"insert":"在全球木材工业领域，“北方木材”是一个地球木材资源区域的“原产地”品牌，不是指中国的黄河以北或东北，而是寒带木材的代名词，也成为芬林的代名词。"},{"insert":"\n\t"},{"attributes":{"lineHeight":"150%"},"insert":"全球森林由气候差异天然划分为热带、寒带、温带、亚热带。寒冷恶劣气候的生长环境，俄罗斯、加拿大、芬兰等寒带国家木材纤维致密度、力学性能、使用稳定性卓越。相比加拿大和俄罗斯的丰富林木资源，国土面积33.8万平方公里的芬兰，却诞生了全球木业工业当之无愧的巨头芬林集团（METSÄ），其木材工业全球地位堪比本世纪初芬兰诺基亚之于全球手机市场的地位，但芬林将比诺基亚更具生存能力和长期领导地位。不出意外，芬林将成为千年企业，历史会忘却诺基亚，但人类会持续与芬林打交道。"},{"insert":"\n\t"},{"attributes":{"lineHeight":"150%"},"insert":"芬林集团所有的业务领域都具有良好的增长和盈利前景。芬林下设“森林、木材、纤维、板材、纸巾”五大成熟产业子集团，主业营收折合390亿人民币，拥有全球最先进的木材工厂和生物制品厂，在2015至2018年期间投资约20亿欧元用于增产，2020至2023年将投资约20亿欧元。大洋产服在《芬林高强度投资未来增长和产品研发》另有详细介绍。"},{"insert":"\n\t"},{"attributes":{"lineHeight":"150%"},"insert":"芬林已实现了森林资源、林木种育开采、木材加工全生命阶段、全数字化和AI智能规划。芬林就木材纤维研发，同样体积的成品材料，不降低产品力学性能的前提下，可节省17%以内的用材。芬林运营全链条能源（开采、生产、运输、办公与居住）大部分来自木屑，计划2030年达到零化石能源供能。芬林与日本产业财团伊藤忠商社，2020年联合推出的木材纺织纤维Kuura已开始应用于服装市场，瞄准全球1亿吨纺织纤维替代市场。芬林高强度投入未来增长和科研，志在发挥天赐北方木材，成为经济、环境和气候解决方案不可忽视的存在，成为金属、石油、煤炭材料的替代品。芬林纤维的服装、家具、家居产品已进入产业化应用推广阶段。"},{"insert":"\n\t"},{"attributes":{"lineHeight":"150%"},"insert":"（图）芬林凯米生物制品厂"},{"insert":"\n"},{"insert":{"image":"P11094959-b7d214e3065f70e23aa7d4fafb355087_430635_910_300.png"}},{"attributes":{"align":"center"},"insert":"\n"},{"insert":"\t"},{"attributes":{"lineHeight":"150%"},"insert":"（图）芬林与伊藤忠商社推出Kuura纤维时装"},{"insert":"\n"},{"insert":{"image":"P11094959-9359043dd77bcce882a9f8e45ecc5299_514441_1368_769.png"}},{"insert":"\n"},{"insert":{"image":"P11094959-58397c39577b81593cb32fd48f78350b_370655_1369_770.png"}},{"insert":"\n木塑超越木材工业意味着什么"},{"attributes":{"header":3},"insert":"\n"},{"insert":"\t"},{"attributes":{"lineHeight":"150%"},"insert":"中国贵邻俄罗斯拥有绝对的北方木材储备优势。满洲里口岸是中国最大陆路口岸，木材进口是该口岸大宗资源性商品，进口量居中国各口岸之首。从全球木材工业企业生态和资本市场分析，中国呈现的是一个下游消费市场的特征。"},{"insert":"\n\t"},{"attributes":{"lineHeight":"150%","bold":true},"insert":"全球木材工业企业，大洋产服将其划分为三类："},{"insert":"\n\t"},{"attributes":{"lineHeight":"150%","bold":true},"insert":"源产地木材工业："},{"attributes":{"lineHeight":"150%"},"insert":"Metasa、WestFraser、Canfor是三大代表，主要是北方木材基地芬兰、加拿大企业。"},{"insert":"\n\t"},{"attributes":{"lineHeight":"150%","bold":true},"insert":"消费地木材工业："},{"attributes":{"lineHeight":"150%"},"insert":"Builders FirstSource、Weyerhaeuser、Boise Cascade、UFP Industries为代表，主要是美国企业。这与美国经济阶段相吻合，环保理念、郊区化低密度生态居住喜好，是美国木材工业的土壤。中国消费地木材工业分散在贸易、建材、家具主业企业，10亿级营收的上游纯木材工业企业仿佛快绝种了。"},{"insert":"\n\t"},{"attributes":{"lineHeight":"150%","bold":true},"insert":"新型木质材料工业："},{"attributes":{"lineHeight":"150%"},"insert":"以Trex、AZEK、木王工业为代表。前两家为美国龙头。木王工业前身为全球木塑三大源流金发绿可Kinfa Lesco，累计研发投入2亿多元，曾被金发科技养在温床里，没有营收规模地位，但其创始团队根基，可能是中国唯一具备进击全球一线产业地位的中国企业。新型木质材料工业企业，在环保理念、材料技术、产品性能方面超越了木材本身，将长期与传统木材工业共存，共同推动木材应用突破和变革。"},{"insert":"\n\t"},{"attributes":{"lineHeight":"150%","bold":true},"insert":"从资本市场做观察，也体现了三类木材工业企业的区别："},{"insert":"\n\t"},{"attributes":{"lineHeight":"150%","bold":true},"insert":"源产地木材工业："},{"attributes":{"lineHeight":"150%"},"insert":"WestFraser、Canfor市值约300亿人民币。Metasa按其上市板材子公司Metasa board市销率，达到700亿市值，为绝对的全球龙头。如考虑其生物纤维、纸巾（恒安国际市值610亿）的消费市场地位，其整体估值保守可在2000亿元以上。"},{"insert":"\n\t"},{"attributes":{"lineHeight":"150%","bold":true},"insert":"消费地木材工业："},{"attributes":{"lineHeight":"150%"},"insert":"Weyerhaeuser惠美以50亿元净利润遥遥领先，市值第一高达1733亿元，反映其消费地经营管理模式和经营水平的先进性。其余Boise Cascade、UFP Industries均与源产地龙头相当。中国做为第一大消费国，资本市场尚没有给木材工业留有思考，其地位远不如初级农产品行业。"},{"insert":"\n\t"},{"attributes":{"lineHeight":"150%","bold":true},"insert":"新型木质材料工业："},{"attributes":{"lineHeight":"150%"},"insert":"以Trex、AZEK、木王工业、森泰股份、安徽科居、惠东美新为代表。前两家为美国龙头，市值皆以登顶木材和木塑行业顶峰。Trex以十分之一的营收创造了高达693亿人民币霸主市值，足可见新型木质材料的潜力。后三家为中国龙头品牌，产品比较接市场地气，但从产品结构和营收结构可以看出其过于传统，创业团队年龄结构老化，企业家团队没有形成产业认知，规模可以增长，但经营境界无法支撑、代言和引领行业发展。木王工业前身为全球木塑三大源流金发绿可Kinfa Lesco，累计研发投入2亿多元，曾被金发科技养在温床里，没有营收规模地位，但其创始团队根基，可能是中国唯一具备进击全球一线产业地位的中国企业。"},{"insert":"\n\t"},{"attributes":{"lineHeight":"150%"},"insert":"新型木质材料工业企业，在环保理念、材料技术、产品性能方面超越了木材本身，将长期与传统木材工业共存，共同推动木材应用突破和变革。"},{"insert":"\n\t"},{"attributes":{"lineHeight":"150%"},"insert":"（图）联合国粮农组织：气候带标记全球森林属性"},{"insert":"\n"},{"insert":{"image":"P11094959-4a430290032bc96d2cdf127ee3f29cc7_450849_1368_633.png"}},{"attributes":{"align":"center"},"insert":"\n"},{"insert":"\t"},{"attributes":{"lineHeight":"150%"},"insert":"（图）联合国粮农组织：俄巴加美中森林面积占全球54%"},{"insert":"\n"},{"insert":{"image":"P11094959-5912853f9d369a288843358afd25e912_145009_1369_471.png"}},{"insert":"\n\t"},{"attributes":{"lineHeight":"150%"},"insert":"（图）中美欧消费全球75%的木材"},{"insert":"\n"},{"insert":{"image":"P11094959-5d213b1894e2d6f6cf4918296d0396c9_70464_1414_853.png"}},{"attributes":{"align":"center"},"insert":"\n\n"},{"insert":"\t"},{"attributes":{"lineHeight":"150%"},"insert":"（图）全球木材与木塑工业企业市值"},{"insert":"\n"},{"insert":{"image":"P11094959-aa7f4b40ae9d30aed4df74cb73c95055_70309_1541_831.png"}},{"insert":"\t"},{"attributes":{"align":"center"},"insert":"\n"},{"insert":"\t"},{"attributes":{"lineHeight":"150%"},"insert":"（图）A股木塑（主业相关企业）迈向全球龙头征途遥远"},{"insert":"\n"},{"insert":{"image":"P11094959-f898affdea2de23e75114562990b6f59_47813_1663_820.png"}},{"insert":"\t\t"},{"attributes":{"align":"center"},"insert":"\n"},{"attributes":{"align":"justify"},"insert":"\n"},{"insert":"\t"},{"attributes":{"lineHeight":"150%"},"insert":"（表）中国木塑产量15强"},{"insert":"\n\t"},{"attributes":{"align":"center"},"insert":"\n"},{"attributes":{"table-col":{"width":"100"}},"insert":"\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n"},{"attributes":{"color":"#000000"},"insert":"2019中国木塑产量15强"},{"attributes":{"align":"center","table-cell-line":{"rowspan":"1","colspan":"8","row":"1","cell":"1"},"row":"1","rowspan":"1","colspan":"8"},"insert":"\n"},{"attributes":{"color":"#000000","bold":true},"insert":"序号"},{"attributes":{"align":"center","table-cell-line":{"rowspan":"2","colspan":"1","row":"2","cell":"1","cell-bg":"rgb(255, 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